On the calibration of Lévy driven time series with coupling distances : an application in paleoclimate

  • This article aims at the statistical assessment of time series with large fluctuations in short time, which are assumed to stem from a continuous process perturbed by a Lévy process exhibiting a heavy tail behavior. We propose an easily implementable procedure to estimate efficiently the statistical difference between the noisy behavior of the data and a given reference jump measure in terms of so-called coupling distances. After a short introduction to Lévy processes and coupling distances we recall basic statistical approximation results and derive rates of convergence. In the sequel the procedure is elaborated in detail in an abstract setting and eventually applied in a case study to simulated and paleoclimate data. It indicates the dominant presence of a non-stable heavy-tailed jump Lévy component for some tail index greater than 2.

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Metadaten
Author details:Jan Gairing, Michael HögeleGND, Tetiana Kosenkova, Alexei Michajlovič KulikORCiDGND
URN:urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-69781
ISSN:2193-6943
Publication series (Volume number):Preprints des Instituts für Mathematik der Universität Potsdam (3 (2014) 2)
Publisher:Universitätsverlag Potsdam
Place of publishing:Potsdam
Publication type:Preprint
Language:English
Year of first publication:2014
Publication year:2014
Publishing institution:Universität Potsdam
Publishing institution:Universitätsverlag Potsdam
Release date:2014/03/03
Tag:empirical Wasserstein distance; goodness-of-fit; index of stability; time series with heavy tails
Volume:3
Issue:2
Number of pages:18
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Mathematik
DDC classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 51 Mathematik / 510 Mathematik
MSC classification:60-XX PROBABILITY THEORY AND STOCHASTIC PROCESSES (For additional applications, see 11Kxx, 62-XX, 90-XX, 91-XX, 92-XX, 93-XX, 94-XX) / 60Gxx Stochastic processes / 60G51 Processes with independent increments; Lévy processes
60-XX PROBABILITY THEORY AND STOCHASTIC PROCESSES (For additional applications, see 11Kxx, 62-XX, 90-XX, 91-XX, 92-XX, 93-XX, 94-XX) / 60Gxx Stochastic processes / 60G52 Stable processes
60-XX PROBABILITY THEORY AND STOCHASTIC PROCESSES (For additional applications, see 11Kxx, 62-XX, 90-XX, 91-XX, 92-XX, 93-XX, 94-XX) / 60Jxx Markov processes / 60J75 Jump processes
62-XX STATISTICS / 62Mxx Inference from stochastic processes / 62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. [See also 91B84]
62-XX STATISTICS / 62Pxx Applications [See also 90-XX, 91-XX, 92-XX] / 62P12 Applications to environmental and related topics
Collection(s):Universität Potsdam / Schriftenreihen / Preprints des Instituts für Mathematik der Universität Potsdam, ISSN 2193-6943 / 2014
License (German):License LogoKeine öffentliche Lizenz: Unter Urheberrechtsschutz
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